ORDER WIN
03/29/2026 · Match #1 · Conquest
Confirmed by Jalopy on 5/1/2026, 6:20:37 PM
Kills
34 – 18
MVP · best KDA
RogueThrone 9/1/11
Biggest Elo gain
RogueThrone +16.0
Biggest Elo drop
Sentinel -8.5
Balance Analysis
Based on 87 prior matchesORDER
50% win prob
Δ 1
Balanced
CHAOS
50% win prob
Order win probChaos win prob
Calibrated model prediction: 20% Order / 80% Chaos — the win-rate model scored on the calibration page (the bar above is the simpler Elo estimate).
Lane Matchups
Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.
JUNGLE
Weak3n
OVR
Obsidian I
JUNGLE
Platinum II
MISMATCH — Order
gap 98 · 64% favored
Sentinel
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
JUNGLE
Amber III PLACEMENT
ADC
RogueThrone
OVR
ROFFLE Tier
ADC
ROFFLE Tier
MISMATCH — Chaos
gap 74 · 60% favored
jswifty
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
ADC
Amber III PLACEMENT
MID
Shmeep
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
MID
Amber III PLACEMENT
EVEN
gap 0 · 50% favored
XDrew600
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
MID
Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO
Tricky
OVR
ROFFLE Tier
SOLO
Amber III PLACEMENT
SLIGHT EDGE — Chaos
gap 14 · 52% favored
Spoon
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO
Amber III PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
TheAiryPickle
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Amber III PLACEMENT
EVEN
gap 5 · 51% favored
SpideryBacchus9
OVR
Poo Poo II
SUPPORT
Amber III PLACEMENT
ORDER (WIN) 34 kills Team Δ +30.1
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Weak3n | 6/5/12 | 3.60 | 166 | ▲ +2.8 | 169 | 87 | |
| ADC | RogueThrone MVP | 9/1/11 | 20.00 | -141 | ▲ +16.0 | -125 | 53 | |
| MID NEW | Shmeep TOP DMG | 11/5/7 | 3.60 | -4 | ▲ +3.0 | -1 | 1 | |
| SOLO SECONDARY | Tricky | 4/4/7 | 2.75 | -32 | ▲ +2.4 | -30 | 15 | |
| SUPPORT NEW | TheAiryPickle | 4/4/19 | 5.75 | 0 | ▲ +5.9 | 6 | 0 |
CHAOS (LOSS) 18 kills Team Δ -30.1
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE NEW | Sentinel | 3/8/8 | 1.38 | 0 | ▼ -8.5 | -8 | 0 | |
| ADC NEW | jswifty | 9/6/6 | 2.50 | 0 | ▼ -4.3 | -4 | 0 | |
| MID NEW | XDrew600 | 2/6/11 | 2.17 | 0 | ▼ -5.5 | -6 | 0 | |
| SOLO NEW | Spoon | 3/6/7 | 1.67 | 2 | ▼ -6.2 | -4 | 1 | |
| SUPPORT | SpideryBacchus9 | 1/8/11 | 1.50 | -10 | ▼ -5.6 | -15 | 11 |
Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers
Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split
ORDER
50% win prob
Δ 3
most balanced split
CHAOS
50% win prob
ORDER · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Sentinel | rookie | |
| ADC | Tricky | ROFFLE Tier | Bronze III PLACEMENT |
| MID | Shmeep | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | RogueThrone | ROFFLE Tier | Dog Shit I |
| SUPPORT | SpideryBacchus9 | Poo Poo II | Amber III PLACEMENT |
CHAOS · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | TheAiryPickle | rookie | |
| ADC | XDrew600 | rookie | |
| MID | Spoon | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | Weak3n | Obsidian I | Platinum II PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | jswifty | rookie | |
What changed vs actual draft
- RogueThrone: ORDER ADC → ORDER SOLO
- Tricky: ORDER SOLO → ORDER ADC
- SpideryBacchus9: CHAOS SUPPORT → ORDER SUPPORT
- Sentinel: CHAOS JUNGLE → ORDER JUNGLE
- Weak3n: ORDER JUNGLE → CHAOS SOLO
- TheAiryPickle: ORDER SUPPORT → CHAOS JUNGLE
- Spoon: CHAOS SOLO → CHAOS MID
- jswifty: CHAOS ADC → CHAOS SUPPORT
- XDrew600: CHAOS MID → CHAOS ADC