CHAOS WIN
04/17/2026 · Match #7 · Conquest
Confirmed by Jalopy on 4/29/2026, 11:48:29 PM
Kills
27 – 57
MVP · best KDA
Grease. 13/3/27
Biggest Elo gain
Grease. +11.4
Biggest Elo drop
treestoompzz -8.0
Balance Analysis
Based on 86 prior matchesORDER
50% win prob
Δ 1
Balanced
CHAOS
50% win prob
Order win probChaos win prob
Calibrated model prediction: 90% Order / 10% Chaos — the win-rate model scored on the calibration page (the bar above is the simpler Elo estimate).
Lane Matchups
Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.
JUNGLE
Weak3n
OVR
Obsidian I
JUNGLE
Platinum I
MISMATCH — Order
gap 102 · 64% favored
MrUMS
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
JUNGLE
Amber III PLACEMENT
ADC
RogueThrone
OVR
ROFFLE Tier
ADC
ROFFLE Tier
SLIGHT EDGE — Chaos
gap 28 · 54% favored
Jonhy0700
OVR
Bronze II
ADC
ROFFLE Tier
MID
DeltaJulz613
OVR
Bronze III
MID
Poo Poo I
EVEN
gap 3 · 50% favored
Grease.
OVR
Bronze III PLACEMENT
MID
Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO
treestoompzz
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO
Amber III PLACEMENT
MISMATCH — Chaos
gap 69 · 60% favored
sillyslother
OVR
Gold II
SOLO
Gold II PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Riptzer
OVR
Silver I
SUPPORT
Gold I
MISMATCH — Order
gap 79 · 61% favored
SpideryBacchus9
OVR
Poo Poo III
SUPPORT
Amber III PLACEMENT
ORDER (LOSS) 27 kills Team Δ -30.1
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Weak3n | 11/11/6 | 1.55 | 171 | ▼ -4.2 | 166 | 86 | |
| ADC | RogueThrone | 5/11/8 | 1.18 | -135 | ▼ -6.0 | -141 | 52 | |
| MID | DeltaJulz613 | 5/11/11 | 1.45 | 20 | ▼ -4.8 | 15 | 22 | |
| SOLO NEW | treestoompzz | 4/11/5 | 0.82 | -4 | ▼ -8.0 | -12 | 1 | |
| SUPPORT | Riptzer C | 2/13/8 | 0.77 | 53 | ▼ -7.0 | 46 | 53 |
CHAOS (WIN) 57 kills Team Δ +30.1
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE NEW | MrUMS | 10/6/22 | 5.33 | 0 | ▲ +4.5 | 5 | 0 | |
| ADC THIRD | Jonhy0700 TOP DMG | 24/9/11 | 3.89 | 24 | ▲ +3.7 | 27 | 82 | |
| MID OFF-ROLE | Grease. MVP | 13/3/27 | 13.33 | 20 | ▲ +11.4 | 32 | 7 | |
| SOLO THIRD | sillyslother C | 8/4/14 | 5.50 | 71 | ▲ +5.1 | 76 | 47 | |
| SUPPORT | SpideryBacchus9 | 2/7/29 | 4.43 | -15 | ▲ +5.3 | -10 | 10 |
Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers
Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split
ORDER
50% win prob
Δ 0
most balanced split
CHAOS
50% win prob
ORDER · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | DeltaJulz613 | Bronze III | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | SpideryBacchus9 | Poo Poo III | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| MID | Grease. | Bronze III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | treestoompzz | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | Riptzer | Silver I | Gold I |
CHAOS · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | MrUMS | rookie | |
| ADC | RogueThrone | ROFFLE Tier | ROFFLE Tier |
| MID | Jonhy0700 | Bronze II | Bronze II |
| SOLO | Weak3n | Obsidian I | Platinum II PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | sillyslother | Gold II | Gold I |
What changed vs actual draft
- DeltaJulz613: ORDER MID → ORDER JUNGLE
- Grease.: CHAOS MID → ORDER MID
- SpideryBacchus9: CHAOS SUPPORT → ORDER ADC
- Weak3n: ORDER JUNGLE → CHAOS SOLO
- RogueThrone: ORDER ADC → CHAOS ADC
- Jonhy0700: CHAOS ADC → CHAOS MID
- sillyslother: CHAOS SOLO → CHAOS SUPPORT
Notes / Flags
- treestoompzz [shitter]: hard diffed in lane lowest dmg in game
- Riptzer [shitter]: no erosion after weak3n asked, also a spectral for no crit gods