04/17/2026 · Match #7 · Conquest CONFIRMED
Confirmed by Jalopy on 4/29/2026, 11:48:29 PM
CHAOS WIN · Weak3n: WITH · Length: 35:04
VOD: https://www.twitch.tv/videos/2750664004?t=03h44m20s @ 13460s
Balance Analysis
Based on 86 prior matchesORDER
50% win prob
Δ 1
Balanced
CHAOS
50% win prob
Lane Matchups
Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.
JUNGLE
Weak3n
OVR
Obsidian I
JUNGLE
Platinum I
MISMATCH — Order
gap 102 · 64% favored
MrUMS
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
JUNGLE
Amber III PLACEMENT
ADC
RogueThrone
OVR
ROFFLE Tier
ADC
ROFFLE Tier
SLIGHT EDGE — Chaos
gap 28 · 54% favored
Jonhy0700
OVR
Bronze II
ADC
ROFFLE Tier
MID
DeltaJulz613
OVR
Bronze III
MID
Poo Poo I
EVEN
gap 3 · 50% favored
Grease.
OVR
Bronze III PLACEMENT
MID
Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO
treestoompzz
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO
Amber III PLACEMENT
MISMATCH — Chaos
gap 69 · 60% favored
sillyslother
OVR
Gold II
SOLO
Gold II PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Riptzer
OVR
Silver I
SUPPORT
Gold I
MISMATCH — Order
gap 79 · 61% favored
SpideryBacchus9
OVR
Poo Poo III
SUPPORT
Amber III PLACEMENT
ORDER (LOSS) Team Δ -30.1
| Role | Player | God | K | D | A | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Weak3n | Mordred | 11 | 11 | 6 | 171 | -4.2 | 166 | 86 |
| ADC | RogueThrone | Hou Yi | 5 | 11 | 8 | -135 | -6.0 | -141 | 52 |
| MID | DeltaJulz613 | Nut | 5 | 11 | 11 | 20 | -4.8 | 15 | 22 |
| SOLO NEW | treestoompzz | Achilles | 4 | 11 | 5 | -4 | -8.0 | -12 | 1 |
| SUPPORT | Riptzer C | Ne Zha | 2 | 13 | 8 | 53 | -7.0 | 46 | 53 |
CHAOS (WIN) Team Δ +30.1
| Role | Player | God | K | D | A | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE NEW | MrUMS | Nemesis | 10 | 6 | 22 | 0 | +4.5 | 5 | 0 |
| ADC THIRD | Jonhy0700 TOP DMG | Poseidon | 24 | 9 | 11 | 24 | +3.7 | 27 | 82 |
| MID OFF-ROLE | Grease. | Morgan Le Fay | 13 | 3 | 27 | 20 | +11.4 | 32 | 7 |
| SOLO THIRD | sillyslother C | Gilgamesh | 8 | 4 | 14 | 71 | +5.1 | 76 | 47 |
| SUPPORT | SpideryBacchus9 | Geb | 2 | 7 | 29 | -15 | +5.3 | -10 | 10 |
Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers
Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split
ORDER
50% win prob
Δ 0
most balanced split
CHAOS
50% win prob
ORDER · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | DeltaJulz613 | Bronze III | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | SpideryBacchus9 | Poo Poo III | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| MID | Grease. | Bronze III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | treestoompzz | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | Riptzer | Silver I | Gold I |
CHAOS · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | MrUMS | rookie | |
| ADC | RogueThrone | ROFFLE Tier | ROFFLE Tier |
| MID | Jonhy0700 | Bronze II | Bronze II |
| SOLO | Weak3n | Obsidian I | Platinum II PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | sillyslother | Gold II | Gold I |
What changed vs actual draft
- DeltaJulz613: ORDER MID → ORDER JUNGLE
- Grease.: CHAOS MID → ORDER MID
- SpideryBacchus9: CHAOS SUPPORT → ORDER ADC
- Weak3n: ORDER JUNGLE → CHAOS SOLO
- RogueThrone: ORDER ADC → CHAOS ADC
- Jonhy0700: CHAOS ADC → CHAOS MID
- sillyslother: CHAOS SOLO → CHAOS SUPPORT
Notes / Flags
- treestoompzz [shitter]: hard diffed in lane lowest dmg in game
- Riptzer [shitter]: no erosion after weak3n asked, also a spectral for no crit gods