CHAOS WIN
04/17/2026 · Match #6 · Conquest
Confirmed by Jalopy on 4/29/2026, 9:43:52 PM
Kills
23 – 39
MVP · best KDA
Weak3n 10/4/20
Biggest Elo gain
DeltaJulz613 +7.4
Biggest Elo drop
Riptzer -5.0
Balance Analysis
Based on 85 prior matchesORDER
43% win prob
Δ 51
Lean CHAOS
CHAOS
57% win prob
Order win probChaos win prob
Calibrated model prediction: 14% Order / 86% Chaos — the win-rate model scored on the calibration page (the bar above is the simpler Elo estimate).
Lane Matchups
Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.
JUNGLE
Jonhy0700
OVR
Bronze I
JUNGLE
Dog Shit I
MISMATCH — Chaos
gap 111 · 65% favored
Weak3n
OVR
Obsidian II
JUNGLE
Platinum II
ADC
Riptzer
OVR
Gold III
ADC
Amber III PLACEMENT
EVEN
gap 5 · 51% favored
GloryorValhalla
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
ADC
Amber III PLACEMENT
MID
RogueThrone
OVR
ROFFLE Tier
MID
ROFFLE Tier
CLEAR EDGE — Chaos
gap 57 · 58% favored
[CopebbyEsports] MindyRox420
OVR
Amber III
MID
Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO
SpideryBacchus9
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO
Amber III PLACEMENT
CLEAR EDGE — Chaos
gap 37 · 55% favored
Grease.
OVR
Bronze III PLACEMENT
SOLO
Bronze III PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Arctic Plex
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Amber III PLACEMENT
SLIGHT EDGE — Chaos
gap 11 · 52% favored
DeltaJulz613
OVR
Amber I
SUPPORT
Amber I
ORDER (LOSS) 23 kills Team Δ -19.2
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Jonhy0700 C | 10/10/5 | 1.50 | 29 | ▼ -4.8 | 24 | 81 | |
| ADC THIRD | Riptzer | 3/9/4 | 0.78 | 58 | ▼ -5.0 | 53 | 52 | |
| MID SECONDARY | RogueThrone | 3/6/11 | 2.33 | -131 | ▼ -3.4 | -135 | 51 | |
| SOLO SECONDARY | SpideryBacchus9 | 5/5/7 | 2.40 | -13 | ▼ -1.5 | -15 | 9 | |
| SUPPORT NEW | Arctic Plex | 2/9/10 | 1.33 | 0 | ▼ -4.4 | -4 | 0 |
CHAOS (WIN) 39 kills Team Δ +25.6
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Weak3n MVP | 10/4/20 | 7.50 | 164 | ▲ +6.7 | 171 | 85 | |
| ADC NEW | GloryorValhalla | 8/3/9 | 5.67 | 0 | ▲ +5.2 | 5 | 0 | |
| MID SECONDARY | [CopebbyEsports] MindyRox420 TOP DMG | 11/6/11 | 3.67 | 3 | ▲ +3.4 | 7 | 18 | |
| SOLO | Grease. | 3/6/14 | 2.83 | 17 | ▲ +3.0 | 20 | 6 | |
| SUPPORT | DeltaJulz613 C | 7/4/20 | 6.75 | 12 | ▲ +7.4 | 20 | 21 |
Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers
Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split
ORDER
50% win prob
Δ 1
most balanced split
CHAOS
50% win prob
ORDER · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | [CopebbyEsports] MindyRox420 | Amber III | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | SpideryBacchus9 | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| MID | Jonhy0700 | Bronze I | Bronze II |
| SOLO | RogueThrone | ROFFLE Tier | Dog Shit I |
| SUPPORT | Riptzer | Gold III | Gold I |
CHAOS · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Arctic Plex | rookie | |
| ADC | DeltaJulz613 | Amber I | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| MID | Grease. | Bronze III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | Weak3n | Obsidian II | Platinum II PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | GloryorValhalla | rookie | |
What changed vs actual draft
- SpideryBacchus9: ORDER SOLO → ORDER ADC
- Jonhy0700: ORDER JUNGLE → ORDER MID
- RogueThrone: ORDER MID → ORDER SOLO
- Riptzer: ORDER ADC → ORDER SUPPORT
- [CopebbyEsports] MindyRox420: CHAOS MID → ORDER JUNGLE
- Arctic Plex: ORDER SUPPORT → CHAOS JUNGLE
- Grease.: CHAOS SOLO → CHAOS MID
- Weak3n: CHAOS JUNGLE → CHAOS SOLO
- DeltaJulz613: CHAOS SUPPORT → CHAOS ADC
- GloryorValhalla: CHAOS ADC → CHAOS SUPPORT