CHAOS WIN
UPSET
08/12/2026 · Match #11 · Conquest
Confirmed by Jalopy on 8/14/2026, 5:41:08 PM
Kills
18 – 47
MVP · best KDA
ForeverNeoo 13/0/22
Biggest Elo gain
ForeverNeoo +15.2
Biggest Elo drop
Wollaston -6.3
Balance Analysis
Based on 244 prior matchesORDER
58% win prob
Δ 56
Lean ORDER
UPSET — underdog won
CHAOS
42% win prob
Order win probChaos win prob
Calibrated model prediction: 100% Order / 0% Chaos — the win-rate model scored on the calibration page (the bar above is the simpler Elo estimate).
Lane Matchups
Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.
JUNGLE
Spoon
OVR
Amber II
JUNGLE
Poo Poo III
SLIGHT EDGE — Chaos
gap 13 · 52% favored
iRoFFLe
OVR
Amber III
JUNGLE
Amber III PLACEMENT
ADC
Chevin
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
ADC
Amber III PLACEMENT
EVEN
gap 4 · 51% favored
JKal-El
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
ADC
Amber III PLACEMENT
MID
Dest
OVR
Bronze I
MID
Bronze III
SLIGHT EDGE — Order
gap 28 · 54% favored
ForeverNeoo
OVR
Amber III
MID
Poo Poo II
SOLO
Wollaston
OVR
Bronze III PLACEMENT
SOLO
Bronze III PLACEMENT
EVEN
gap 6 · 51% favored
i cant read
OVR
ROFFLE Tier
SOLO
Amber I PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Weak3n
OVR
Obsidian II
SUPPORT
Gold III
MISMATCH — Order
gap 63 · 59% favored
ScoobySnaccs
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Amber III PLACEMENT
ORDER (LOSS) 18 kills Team Δ -23.6
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE SECONDARY | Spoon | 3/9/3 | 0.67 | 8 | ▼ -4.2 | 4 | 28 | |
| ADC SECONDARY | Chevin | 3/10/2 | 0.50 | 4 | ▼ -5.4 | -2 | 3 | |
| MID | Dest | 6/11/4 | 0.91 | 31 | ▼ -6.1 | 25 | 19 | |
| SOLO NEW | Wollaston | 3/8/4 | 0.88 | 20 | ▼ -6.3 | 14 | 1 | |
| SUPPORT OFF-ROLE | Weak3n | 3/9/11 | 1.56 | 162 | ▼ -1.5 | 160 | 244 |
CHAOS (WIN) 47 kills Team Δ +34.8
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE OFF-ROLE | iRoFFLe | 2/4/28 | 7.50 | 2 | ▲ +3.1 | 5 | 72 | |
| ADC NEW | JKal-El | 5/4/18 | 5.75 | 4 | ▲ +2.3 | 6 | 1 | |
| MID | ForeverNeoo MVP TOP DMG | 13/0/22 | 35.00 | 4 | ▲ +15.2 | 19 | 27 | |
| SOLO OFF-ROLE | i cant read | 13/1/14 | 27.00 | -60 | ▲ +12.1 | -48 | 90 | |
| SUPPORT OFF-ROLE | ScoobySnaccs | 14/9/14 | 3.11 | -3 | ▲ +2.0 | -1 | 5 |
Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers
Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split
ORDER
50% win prob
Δ 0
most balanced split
CHAOS
50% win prob
ORDER · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Dest | Bronze I | Bronze I PLACEMENT |
| ADC | ForeverNeoo | Amber III | Amber II PLACEMENT |
| MID | Spoon | Amber II | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | Wollaston | Bronze III PLACEMENT | Bronze III PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | iRoFFLe | Amber III | Bronze I |
CHAOS · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | i cant read | ROFFLE Tier | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | JKal-El | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| MID | ScoobySnaccs | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | Weak3n | Obsidian II | Platinum I PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | Chevin | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber II PLACEMENT |
What changed vs actual draft
- Dest: ORDER MID → ORDER JUNGLE
- Spoon: ORDER JUNGLE → ORDER MID
- iRoFFLe: CHAOS JUNGLE → ORDER SUPPORT
- ForeverNeoo: CHAOS MID → ORDER ADC
- Weak3n: ORDER SUPPORT → CHAOS SOLO
- Chevin: ORDER ADC → CHAOS SUPPORT
- i cant read: CHAOS SOLO → CHAOS JUNGLE
- ScoobySnaccs: CHAOS SUPPORT → CHAOS MID
Notes / Flags
- Dest [general]: 16k dmg over 10k less then supp
- Spoon [shitter]: Flagged as shitter