CHAOS WIN
UPSET
08/12/2026 · Match #10 · Conquest
Confirmed by Jalopy on 8/14/2026, 5:34:29 PM
Kills
21 – 26
MVP · best KDA
Wollaston 4/1/12
Biggest Elo gain
Wollaston +20.4
Biggest Elo drop
Weak3n -7.3
Balance Analysis
Based on 243 prior matchesORDER
57% win prob
Δ 51
Lean ORDER
UPSET — underdog won
CHAOS
43% win prob
Order win probChaos win prob
Calibrated model prediction: 0% Order / 100% Chaos — the win-rate model scored on the calibration page (the bar above is the simpler Elo estimate).
Lane Matchups
Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.
JUNGLE
Weak3n
OVR
Obsidian I
JUNGLE
Gold II
MISMATCH — Order
gap 85 · 62% favored
Spoon
OVR
Amber III
JUNGLE
Amber III PLACEMENT
ADC
Chevin
OVR
Amber II PLACEMENT
ADC
Amber III PLACEMENT
MISMATCH — Order
gap 63 · 59% favored
i cant read
OVR
ROFFLE Tier
ADC
ROFFLE Tier
MID
ForeverNeoo
OVR
Amber I
MID
Poo Poo I
EVEN
gap 0 · 50% favored
Malenia
OVR
Poo Poo II
MID
Poo Poo I
SOLO
Bananaband43
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO
Amber III PLACEMENT
EVEN
gap 0 · 50% favored
Wollaston
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO
Amber III PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
iRoFFLe
OVR
Amber III
SUPPORT
Bronze I
CLEAR EDGE — Order
gap 34 · 55% favored
JKal-El
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Amber III PLACEMENT
ORDER (LOSS) 21 kills Team Δ -23.3
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Weak3n | 3/6/11 | 2.33 | 169 | ▼ -7.3 | 162 | 243 | |
| ADC NEW | Chevin | 3/7/11 | 2.00 | 8 | ▼ -4.6 | 4 | 2 | |
| MID SECONDARY | ForeverNeoo | 4/8/6 | 1.25 | 11 | ▼ -6.6 | 4 | 26 | |
| SOLO NEW | Bananaband43 | 5/2/8 | 6.50 | 0 | ▼ -2.4 | -2 | 0 | |
| SUPPORT | iRoFFLe | 6/3/12 | 6.00 | 5 | ▼ -2.4 | 2 | 71 |
CHAOS (WIN) 26 kills Team Δ +34.4
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE SECONDARY | Spoon | 7/4/11 | 4.50 | 3 | ▲ +5.1 | 8 | 27 | |
| ADC | i cant read | 7/6/2 | 1.50 | -62 | ▲ +2.1 | -60 | 89 | |
| MID | Malenia TOP DMG | 8/5/6 | 2.80 | -6 | ▲ +3.3 | -3 | 17 | |
| SOLO NEW | Wollaston MVP | 4/1/12 | 16.00 | 0 | ▲ +20.4 | 20 | 0 | |
| SUPPORT NEW | JKal-El | 0/5/11 | 2.20 | 0 | ▲ +3.6 | 4 | 0 |
Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers
Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split
ORDER
50% win prob
Δ 3
most balanced split
CHAOS
50% win prob
ORDER · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | i cant read | ROFFLE Tier | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | Wollaston | rookie | |
| MID | JKal-El | rookie | |
| SOLO | Weak3n | Obsidian I | Platinum I PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | ForeverNeoo | Amber I | Bronze III PLACEMENT |
CHAOS · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Chevin | Amber II PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | Spoon | Amber III | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| MID | Malenia | Poo Poo II | Poo Poo I |
| SOLO | Bananaband43 | rookie | |
| SUPPORT | iRoFFLe | Amber III | Bronze I |
What changed vs actual draft
- Weak3n: ORDER JUNGLE → ORDER SOLO
- ForeverNeoo: ORDER MID → ORDER SUPPORT
- i cant read: CHAOS ADC → ORDER JUNGLE
- JKal-El: CHAOS SUPPORT → ORDER MID
- Wollaston: CHAOS SOLO → ORDER ADC
- iRoFFLe: ORDER SUPPORT → CHAOS SUPPORT
- Chevin: ORDER ADC → CHAOS JUNGLE
- Bananaband43: ORDER SOLO → CHAOS SOLO
- Spoon: CHAOS JUNGLE → CHAOS ADC
Notes / Flags
- iRoFFLe [shitter]: missed shell and lied about it