CHAOS WIN
UPSET
08/10/2026 · Match #5 · Conquest
Confirmed by Jalopy on 8/14/2026, 3:06:17 PM
Kills
35 – 46
MVP · best KDA
hassasin0308 9/4/13
Biggest Elo gain
hassasin0308 +9.3
Biggest Elo drop
Edgarsaurus -5.5
Balance Analysis
Based on 230 prior matchesORDER
57% win prob
Δ 46
Lean ORDER
UPSET — underdog won
CHAOS
43% win prob
Order win probChaos win prob
Calibrated model prediction: 10% Order / 90% Chaos — the win-rate model scored on the calibration page (the bar above is the simpler Elo estimate).
Lane Matchups
Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.
JUNGLE
Edgarsaurus
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
JUNGLE
Amber III PLACEMENT
EVEN
gap 4 · 51% favored
ScoobySnaccs
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
JUNGLE
Amber III PLACEMENT
ADC
Shmeep
OVR
Poo Poo III
ADC
Amber III PLACEMENT
CLEAR EDGE — Order
gap 44 · 56% favored
i cant read
OVR
ROFFLE Tier
ADC
ROFFLE Tier
MID
Weak3n
OVR
Obsidian III
MID
Bronze III
CLEAR EDGE — Order
gap 31 · 54% favored
ForeverNeoo
OVR
Amber I
MID
Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO
Jones3Gaming
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO
Amber III PLACEMENT
EVEN
gap 2 · 50% favored
hassasin0308
OVR
Amber II PLACEMENT
SOLO
Amber II PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Jigann
OVR
Silver I
SUPPORT
Silver I
SLIGHT EDGE — Order
gap 21 · 53% favored
iRoFFLe
OVR
Poo Poo I
SUPPORT
Bronze I
ORDER (LOSS) 35 kills Team Δ -20.6
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE NEW | Edgarsaurus | 8/13/7 | 1.15 | 4 | ▼ -5.5 | -1 | 2 | |
| ADC SECONDARY | Shmeep | 4/11/10 | 1.27 | -14 | ▼ -5.5 | -19 | 19 | |
| MID OFF-ROLE | Weak3n | 8/9/19 | 3.00 | 147 | ▼ -4.4 | 143 | 230 | |
| SOLO | Jones3Gaming | 7/8/13 | 2.50 | 1 | ▼ -2.4 | -2 | 7 | |
| SUPPORT | Jigann | 8/5/13 | 4.20 | 55 | ▼ -2.8 | 52 | 34 |
CHAOS (WIN) 46 kills Team Δ +33.9
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE NEW | ScoobySnaccs | 12/10/13 | 2.50 | -9 | ▲ +4.0 | -5 | 1 | |
| ADC | i cant read TOP DMG | 16/5/7 | 4.60 | -48 | ▲ +8.0 | -40 | 79 | |
| MID SECONDARY | ForeverNeoo | 6/10/16 | 2.20 | 16 | ▲ +3.4 | 19 | 18 | |
| SOLO NEW | hassasin0308 MVP | 9/4/13 | 5.50 | 5 | ▲ +9.3 | 15 | 2 | |
| SUPPORT | iRoFFLe | 3/6/23 | 4.33 | -1 | ▲ +9.2 | 8 | 65 |
Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers
Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split
ORDER
50% win prob
Δ 0
most balanced split
CHAOS
50% win prob
ORDER · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | ForeverNeoo | Amber I | Amber II PLACEMENT |
| ADC | Jigann | Silver I | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| MID | Shmeep | Poo Poo III | Amber II PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | Edgarsaurus | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | iRoFFLe | Poo Poo I | Bronze I |
CHAOS · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | i cant read | ROFFLE Tier | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | ScoobySnaccs | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| MID | hassasin0308 | Amber II PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | Weak3n | Obsidian III | Platinum II PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | Jones3Gaming | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
What changed vs actual draft
- Shmeep: ORDER ADC → ORDER MID
- Jigann: ORDER SUPPORT → ORDER ADC
- Edgarsaurus: ORDER JUNGLE → ORDER SOLO
- iRoFFLe: CHAOS SUPPORT → ORDER SUPPORT
- ForeverNeoo: CHAOS MID → ORDER JUNGLE
- Weak3n: ORDER MID → CHAOS SOLO
- Jones3Gaming: ORDER SOLO → CHAOS SUPPORT
- hassasin0308: CHAOS SOLO → CHAOS MID
- i cant read: CHAOS ADC → CHAOS JUNGLE
- ScoobySnaccs: CHAOS JUNGLE → CHAOS ADC