ORDER WIN
08/10/2026 · Match #4 · Conquest
Confirmed by Jalopy on 8/14/2026, 3:18:09 PM
Balance Analysis
Based on 229 prior matchesORDER
55% win prob
Δ 32
Lean ORDER
CHAOS
45% win prob
Order win probChaos win prob
Calibrated model prediction: 99% Order / 1% Chaos — the win-rate model scored on the calibration page (the bar above is the simpler Elo estimate).
Lane Matchups
Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.
JUNGLE
Edgarsaurus
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
JUNGLE
Amber III PLACEMENT
SLIGHT EDGE — Chaos
gap 14 · 52% favored
OSteg
OVR
Bronze II
JUNGLE
Amber I PLACEMENT
ADC
Weak3n
OVR
Diamond I
ADC
Amber I
SLIGHT EDGE — Order
gap 11 · 52% favored
Jones3Gaming
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
ADC
Amber III PLACEMENT
MID
Jorgito
OVR
Bronze III PLACEMENT
MID
Amber III PLACEMENT
SLIGHT EDGE — Chaos
gap 24 · 53% favored
Dest
OVR
Silver III
MID
Bronze II
SOLO
ForeverNeoo
OVR
Amber I
SOLO
Amber III PLACEMENT
SLIGHT EDGE — Order
gap 18 · 53% favored
Shmeep
OVR
Poo Poo III
SOLO
Amber III PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Jigann
OVR
Silver II
SUPPORT
Silver II
CLEAR EDGE — Order
gap 43 · 56% favored
hassasin0308
OVR
Amber II PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Amber III PLACEMENT
ORDER (WIN) 27 kills Team Δ +27.3
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE NEW | Edgarsaurus | 7/13/8 | 1.15 | 2 | ▲ +2.5 | 4 | 1 | |
| ADC OFF-ROLE | Weak3n | 9/5/10 | 3.80 | 139 | ▲ +8.4 | 147 | 229 | |
| MID NEW | Jorgito | 5/6/13 | 3.00 | 18 | ▲ +6.4 | 24 | 2 | |
| SOLO | ForeverNeoo | 4/6/6 | 1.67 | 12 | ▲ +3.9 | 16 | 17 | |
| SUPPORT | Jigann C | 2/5/9 | 2.20 | 49 | ▲ +6.1 | 55 | 33 |
CHAOS (LOSS) 35 kills Team Δ -19.6
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE OFF-ROLE | OSteg TOP DMG | 15/6/14 | 4.83 | 25 | ▼ -2.2 | 23 | 107 | |
| ADC OFF-ROLE | Jones3Gaming | 7/8/16 | 2.88 | 5 | ▼ -4.0 | 1 | 6 | |
| MID | Dest | 6/7/10 | 2.29 | 35 | ▼ -9.6 | 26 | 17 | |
| SOLO | Shmeep MVP C | 5/2/12 | 8.50 | -12 | ▼ -2.3 | -14 | 18 | |
| SUPPORT NEW | hassasin0308 | 2/4/20 | 5.50 | 7 | ▼ -1.5 | 5 | 1 |
Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers
Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split
ORDER
50% win prob
Δ 0
most balanced split
CHAOS
50% win prob
ORDER · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Jorgito | Bronze III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | Jones3Gaming | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| MID | Shmeep | Poo Poo III | Amber II PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | Weak3n | Diamond I | Platinum II PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | hassasin0308 | Amber II PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
CHAOS · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Dest | Silver III | Bronze I PLACEMENT |
| ADC | Jigann | Silver II | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| MID | Edgarsaurus | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | OSteg | Bronze II | Silver II |
| SUPPORT | ForeverNeoo | Amber I | Bronze III PLACEMENT |
What changed vs actual draft
- Weak3n: ORDER ADC → ORDER SOLO
- Jorgito: ORDER MID → ORDER JUNGLE
- Shmeep: CHAOS SOLO → ORDER MID
- hassasin0308: CHAOS SUPPORT → ORDER SUPPORT
- Jones3Gaming: CHAOS ADC → ORDER ADC
- Jigann: ORDER SUPPORT → CHAOS ADC
- ForeverNeoo: ORDER SOLO → CHAOS SUPPORT
- Edgarsaurus: ORDER JUNGLE → CHAOS MID
- Dest: CHAOS MID → CHAOS JUNGLE
- OSteg: CHAOS JUNGLE → CHAOS SOLO