CHAOS WIN
UPSET
08/10/2026 · Match #3 · Conquest
Confirmed by Jalopy on 8/14/2026, 2:34:56 PM
Kills
18 – 38
MVP · best KDA
Spoon 7/1/12
Biggest Elo gain
Spoon +14.4
Biggest Elo drop
FazeSlim -5.7
Balance Analysis
Based on 228 prior matchesORDER
54% win prob
Δ 30
Lean ORDER
UPSET — underdog won
CHAOS
46% win prob
Order win probChaos win prob
Calibrated model prediction: 0% Order / 100% Chaos — the win-rate model scored on the calibration page (the bar above is the simpler Elo estimate).
Lane Matchups
Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.
JUNGLE
Weak3n
OVR
Obsidian III
JUNGLE
Gold I
MISMATCH — Order
gap 68 · 60% favored
OSteg
OVR
Bronze II
JUNGLE
Amber I PLACEMENT
ADC
Shmeep
OVR
Poo Poo II
ADC
Amber III PLACEMENT
EVEN
gap 1 · 50% favored
Edgarsaurus
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
ADC
Amber III PLACEMENT
MID
FazeSlim
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
MID
Amber III PLACEMENT
SLIGHT EDGE — Chaos
gap 19 · 53% favored
Dest
OVR
Bronze I
MID
Bronze III
SOLO
Jones3Gaming
OVR
Amber II PLACEMENT
SOLO
Amber II PLACEMENT
SLIGHT EDGE — Order
gap 18 · 53% favored
Spoon
OVR
Poo Poo II
SOLO
Poo Poo III
SUPPORT
Jigann
OVR
Silver I
SUPPORT
Silver II
CLEAR EDGE — Order
gap 36 · 55% favored
ForeverNeoo
OVR
Amber III
SUPPORT
Amber II PLACEMENT
ORDER (LOSS) 18 kills Team Δ -19.7
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Weak3n | 8/8/4 | 1.50 | 144 | ▼ -5.4 | 139 | 228 | |
| ADC SECONDARY | Shmeep | 4/8/3 | 0.88 | -7 | ▼ -4.6 | -12 | 17 | |
| MID NEW | FazeSlim | 2/13/8 | 0.77 | 4 | ▼ -5.7 | -2 | 1 | |
| SOLO | Jones3Gaming | 2/6/7 | 1.50 | 7 | ▼ -2.5 | 5 | 5 | |
| SUPPORT | Jigann | 2/3/11 | 4.33 | 50 | ▼ -1.5 | 49 | 32 |
CHAOS (WIN) 38 kills Team Δ +32.6
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE OFF-ROLE | OSteg | 8/5/11 | 3.80 | 22 | ▲ +2.7 | 25 | 106 | |
| ADC NEW | Edgarsaurus | 6/5/6 | 2.40 | 0 | ▲ +1.9 | 2 | 0 | |
| MID | Dest TOP DMG | 15/4/10 | 6.25 | 31 | ▲ +4.6 | 35 | 16 | |
| SOLO | Spoon MVP | 7/1/12 | 19.00 | -6 | ▲ +14.4 | 8 | 25 | |
| SUPPORT THIRD | ForeverNeoo | 2/3/26 | 9.33 | 3 | ▲ +9.0 | 12 | 16 |
Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers
Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split
ORDER
50% win prob
Δ 1
most balanced split
CHAOS
50% win prob
ORDER · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | FazeSlim | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | Jigann | Silver I | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| MID | Spoon | Poo Poo II | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | OSteg | Bronze II | Silver II |
| SUPPORT | Shmeep | Poo Poo II | Amber III PLACEMENT |
CHAOS · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Dest | Bronze I | Bronze I PLACEMENT |
| ADC | Edgarsaurus | rookie | |
| MID | Jones3Gaming | Amber II PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | Weak3n | Obsidian III | Platinum II PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | ForeverNeoo | Amber III | Amber II PLACEMENT |
What changed vs actual draft
- Shmeep: ORDER ADC → ORDER SUPPORT
- Jigann: ORDER SUPPORT → ORDER ADC
- FazeSlim: ORDER MID → ORDER JUNGLE
- Spoon: CHAOS SOLO → ORDER MID
- OSteg: CHAOS JUNGLE → ORDER SOLO
- Weak3n: ORDER JUNGLE → CHAOS SOLO
- Jones3Gaming: ORDER SOLO → CHAOS MID
- Dest: CHAOS MID → CHAOS JUNGLE
Notes / Flags
- FazeSlim [shitter]: feeding