CHAOS WIN
UPSET
08/10/2026 · Match #2 · Conquest
Confirmed by Jalopy on 8/14/2026, 2:28:23 PM
Kills
30 – 25
MVP · best KDA
Jigann 10/3/13
Biggest Elo gain
Jdood2000 +9.3
Biggest Elo drop
OSteg -9.3
Balance Analysis
Based on 227 prior matchesORDER
57% win prob
Δ 48
Lean ORDER
UPSET — underdog won
CHAOS
43% win prob
Order win probChaos win prob
Calibrated model prediction: 14% Order / 86% Chaos — the win-rate model scored on the calibration page (the bar above is the simpler Elo estimate).
Lane Matchups
Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.
JUNGLE
Weak3n
OVR
Obsidian III
JUNGLE
Platinum III
MISMATCH — Order
gap 105 · 65% favored
Spoon
OVR
Poo Poo III
JUNGLE
Amber III PLACEMENT
ADC
OSteg
OVR
Bronze I
ADC
ROFFLE Tier
CLEAR EDGE — Chaos
gap 32 · 55% favored
FazeSlim
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
ADC
Amber III PLACEMENT
MID
ForeverNeoo
OVR
Amber II
MID
Amber III PLACEMENT
EVEN
gap 6 · 51% favored
linvisible
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
MID
Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO
Shmeep
OVR
Amber III
SOLO
Amber III PLACEMENT
SLIGHT EDGE — Chaos
gap 21 · 53% favored
Jorgito
OVR
Amber II PLACEMENT
SOLO
Amber II PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Jigann
OVR
Silver I
SUPPORT
Silver II
CLEAR EDGE — Order
gap 47 · 57% favored
Jdood2000
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Amber III PLACEMENT
ORDER (LOSS) 30 kills Team Δ -29.1
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Weak3n | 9/4/16 | 6.25 | 148 | ▼ -3.6 | 144 | 227 | |
| ADC THIRD | OSteg | 5/6/10 | 2.50 | 32 | ▼ -9.3 | 22 | 105 | |
| MID SECONDARY | ForeverNeoo | 2/6/12 | 2.33 | 8 | ▼ -5.0 | 3 | 15 | |
| SOLO | Shmeep | 4/6/10 | 2.33 | 2 | ▼ -8.6 | -7 | 16 | |
| SUPPORT | Jigann MVP | 10/3/13 | 7.67 | 53 | ▼ -2.7 | 50 | 31 |
CHAOS (WIN) 25 kills Team Δ +34.1
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE SECONDARY | Spoon | 8/9/8 | 1.78 | -10 | ▲ +4.5 | -6 | 24 | |
| ADC NEW | FazeSlim | 2/6/8 | 1.67 | 0 | ▲ +3.7 | 4 | 0 | |
| MID NEW | linvisible TOP DMG | 8/5/9 | 3.40 | 0 | ▲ +8.5 | 9 | 0 | |
| SOLO NEW | Jorgito | 2/5/12 | 2.80 | 10 | ▲ +8.1 | 18 | 1 | |
| SUPPORT NEW | Jdood2000 | 5/5/11 | 3.20 | 0 | ▲ +9.3 | 9 | 0 |
Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers
Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split
ORDER
50% win prob
Δ 3
most balanced split
CHAOS
50% win prob
ORDER · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | FazeSlim | rookie | |
| ADC | Jigann | Silver I | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| MID | Shmeep | Amber III | Amber II PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | Jorgito | Amber II PLACEMENT | Amber II PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | ForeverNeoo | Amber II | Amber II PLACEMENT |
CHAOS · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | OSteg | Bronze I | Amber I PLACEMENT |
| ADC | linvisible | rookie | |
| MID | Spoon | Poo Poo III | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | Weak3n | Obsidian III | Platinum II PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | Jdood2000 | rookie | |
What changed vs actual draft
- Shmeep: ORDER SOLO → ORDER MID
- Jigann: ORDER SUPPORT → ORDER ADC
- ForeverNeoo: ORDER MID → ORDER SUPPORT
- Jorgito: CHAOS SOLO → ORDER SOLO
- FazeSlim: CHAOS ADC → ORDER JUNGLE
- Weak3n: ORDER JUNGLE → CHAOS SOLO
- OSteg: ORDER ADC → CHAOS JUNGLE
- Spoon: CHAOS JUNGLE → CHAOS MID
- linvisible: CHAOS MID → CHAOS ADC