CHAOS WIN
08/03/2026 · Match #1 · Conquest
Confirmed by Jalopy on 8/10/2026, 11:00:19 PM
Kills
36 – 33
MVP · best KDA
ItzStallone 11/5/16
Biggest Elo gain
ItzStallone +9.6
Biggest Elo drop
Spoon -7.9
Balance Analysis
Based on 224 prior matchesORDER
44% win prob
Δ 43
Lean CHAOS
CHAOS
56% win prob
Order win probChaos win prob
Calibrated model prediction: 100% Order / 0% Chaos — the win-rate model scored on the calibration page (the bar above is the simpler Elo estimate).
Lane Matchups
Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.
JUNGLE
Weak3n
OVR
Diamond I
JUNGLE
Gold I
MISMATCH — Order
gap 75 · 61% favored
DickLion
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
JUNGLE
Amber III PLACEMENT
ADC
Bill
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
ADC
Amber III PLACEMENT
EVEN
gap 0 · 50% favored
Valacia
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
ADC
Amber III PLACEMENT
MID
ForeverNeoo
OVR
Amber II
MID
Amber III PLACEMENT
CLEAR EDGE — Chaos
gap 50 · 57% favored
ItzStallone
OVR
Gold II
MID
Silver II
SOLO
Spoon
OVR
Poo Poo III
SOLO
Poo Poo III
MISMATCH — Chaos
gap 92 · 63% favored
Jonhy0700
OVR
Platinum II
SOLO
Gold I
SUPPORT
Jigann
OVR
Silver II
SUPPORT
Silver III
MISMATCH — Chaos
gap 229 · 79% favored
Riptzer
OVR
Demigod
SUPPORT
Demigod
ORDER (LOSS) 36 kills Team Δ -23.7
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Weak3n | 5/7/13 | 2.57 | 140 | ▼ -5.8 | 134 | 224 | |
| ADC NEW | Bill | 6/5/16 | 4.40 | 0 | ▼ -3.6 | -4 | 0 | |
| MID SECONDARY | ForeverNeoo | 7/8/16 | 2.88 | 5 | ▼ -2.6 | 3 | 13 | |
| SOLO | Spoon | 4/7/8 | 1.71 | -11 | ▼ -7.9 | -18 | 22 | |
| SUPPORT | Jigann C | 14/6/10 | 4.00 | 44 | ▼ -3.8 | 40 | 28 |
CHAOS (WIN) 33 kills Team Δ +26.3
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE NEW | DickLion | 8/9/6 | 1.56 | 0 | ▲ +2.9 | 3 | 0 | |
| ADC NEW | Valacia | 4/7/8 | 1.71 | 0 | ▲ +2.9 | 3 | 0 | |
| MID | ItzStallone MVP TOP DMG | 11/5/16 | 5.40 | 67 | ▲ +9.6 | 77 | 43 | |
| SOLO THIRD | Jonhy0700 | 8/5/10 | 3.60 | 93 | ▲ +6.7 | 99 | 171 | |
| SUPPORT | Riptzer C | 2/10/16 | 1.80 | 233 | ▲ +4.3 | 237 | 147 |
Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers
Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split
ORDER
50% win prob
Δ 1
most balanced split
CHAOS
50% win prob
ORDER · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Bill | rookie | |
| ADC | DickLion | rookie | |
| MID | Spoon | Poo Poo III | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | Weak3n | Diamond I | Platinum II PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | Riptzer | Demigod | Demigod |
CHAOS · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | ItzStallone | Gold II | Bronze III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | Jigann | Silver II | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| MID | ForeverNeoo | Amber II | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | Jonhy0700 | Platinum II | Gold I |
| SUPPORT | Valacia | rookie | |
What changed vs actual draft
- Spoon: ORDER SOLO → ORDER MID
- Weak3n: ORDER JUNGLE → ORDER SOLO
- Bill: ORDER ADC → ORDER JUNGLE
- Riptzer: CHAOS SUPPORT → ORDER SUPPORT
- DickLion: CHAOS JUNGLE → ORDER ADC
- Jigann: ORDER SUPPORT → CHAOS ADC
- ForeverNeoo: ORDER MID → CHAOS MID
- ItzStallone: CHAOS MID → CHAOS JUNGLE
- Valacia: CHAOS ADC → CHAOS SUPPORT