CHAOS WIN
06/03/2026 · Match #1 · Conquest
Confirmed by Jalopy on 6/4/2026, 3:42:38 AM
Kills
34 – 36
MVP · best KDA
ItsStylez 5/3/12
Biggest Elo gain
ELLEONTTV +7.1
Biggest Elo drop
JustCallMeNick -6.6
Balance Analysis
Based on 189 prior matchesORDER
42% win prob
Δ 55
Lean CHAOS
CHAOS
58% win prob
Order win probChaos win prob
Calibrated model prediction: 6% Order / 94% Chaos — the win-rate model scored on the calibration page (the bar above is the simpler Elo estimate).
Lane Matchups
Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.
JUNGLE
inbowned
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
JUNGLE
Amber III PLACEMENT
SLIGHT EDGE — Chaos
gap 23 · 53% favored
Weak3n
OVR
Gold I
JUNGLE
Bronze II
ADC
JustCallMeNick
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
ADC
Amber III PLACEMENT
SLIGHT EDGE — Order
gap 26 · 54% favored
OSteg
OVR
Amber II
ADC
Dog Shit III
MID
TramboneKing
OVR
ROFFLE Tier
MID
Amber III PLACEMENT
SLIGHT EDGE — Chaos
gap 16 · 52% favored
Jalopy
OVR
Platinum II
MID
Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO
ItsStylez
OVR
Bronze III PLACEMENT
SOLO
Bronze III PLACEMENT
SLIGHT EDGE — Order
gap 29 · 54% favored
Shmeep
OVR
Poo Poo I
SOLO
Amber III PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Edgewing
OVR
ROFFLE Tier
SUPPORT
Amber III PLACEMENT
SLIGHT EDGE — Chaos
gap 22 · 53% favored
ELLEONTTV
OVR
Silver I
SUPPORT
Amber III PLACEMENT
ORDER (LOSS) 34 kills Team Δ -22.5
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE NEW | inbowned | 15/8/7 | 2.75 | 0 | ▼ -4.6 | -5 | 0 | |
| ADC NEW | JustCallMeNick | 6/9/13 | 2.11 | 0 | ▼ -6.6 | -7 | 0 | |
| MID SECONDARY | TramboneKing | 3/7/12 | 2.14 | -34 | ▼ -6.4 | -40 | 19 | |
| SOLO NEW | ItsStylez MVP C | 5/3/12 | 5.67 | 17 | ▼ -2.1 | 15 | 1 | |
| SUPPORT SECONDARY | Edgewing | 5/9/13 | 2.00 | -32 | ▼ -2.8 | -35 | 31 |
CHAOS (WIN) 36 kills Team Δ +25.3
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Weak3n | 13/6/8 | 3.50 | 77 | ▲ +4.9 | 82 | 189 | |
| ADC THIRD | OSteg | 10/8/16 | 3.25 | 6 | ▲ +4.2 | 10 | 88 | |
| MID THIRD | Jalopy TOP DMG | 7/6/20 | 4.50 | 92 | ▲ +5.8 | 98 | 27 | |
| SOLO | Shmeep C | 0/8/16 | 2.00 | -4 | ▲ +3.3 | -1 | 10 | |
| SUPPORT SECONDARY | ELLEONTTV | 6/6/20 | 4.33 | 56 | ▲ +7.1 | 63 | 21 |
Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers
Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split
ORDER
50% win prob
Δ 1
most balanced split
CHAOS
50% win prob
ORDER · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Jalopy | Platinum II | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | JustCallMeNick | rookie | |
| MID | ItsStylez | Bronze III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | OSteg | Amber II | Bronze I |
| SUPPORT | TramboneKing | ROFFLE Tier | Amber II PLACEMENT |
CHAOS · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | inbowned | rookie | |
| ADC | ELLEONTTV | Silver I | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| MID | Shmeep | Poo Poo I | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | Weak3n | Gold I | Platinum II PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | Edgewing | ROFFLE Tier | Amber III PLACEMENT |
What changed vs actual draft
- TramboneKing: ORDER MID → ORDER SUPPORT
- ItsStylez: ORDER SOLO → ORDER MID
- Jalopy: CHAOS MID → ORDER JUNGLE
- OSteg: CHAOS ADC → ORDER SOLO
- Edgewing: ORDER SUPPORT → CHAOS SUPPORT
- inbowned: ORDER JUNGLE → CHAOS JUNGLE
- ELLEONTTV: CHAOS SUPPORT → CHAOS ADC
- Shmeep: CHAOS SOLO → CHAOS MID
- Weak3n: CHAOS JUNGLE → CHAOS SOLO