06/01/2026 · Match #1 · Conquest CONFIRMED
Confirmed by Jalopy on 6/4/2026, 2:40:41 AM
ORDER WIN · Weak3n: WITH · Length: 31:56
VOD: https://www.twitch.tv/videos/2786457464?t=02h49m52s @ 10192s
Balance Analysis
Based on 185 prior matchesORDER
54% win prob
Δ 29
Lean ORDER
CHAOS
46% win prob
Lane Matchups
Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.
JUNGLE
Weak3n
OVR
Gold III
JUNGLE
Amber III
EVEN
gap 3 · 50% favored
Maesh
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
JUNGLE
Amber III PLACEMENT
ADC
Bubbles
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
ADC
Amber III PLACEMENT
EVEN
gap 0 · 50% favored
JackD22
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
ADC
Amber III PLACEMENT
MID
DESTROYINOOBS
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
MID
Amber III PLACEMENT
EVEN
gap 1 · 50% favored
LordSlatysteak
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
MID
Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO
Boolougames
OVR
Platinum III
SOLO
Bronze II
SLIGHT EDGE — Order
gap 24 · 53% favored
MrUMS
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO
Amber III PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Porky16
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Amber III PLACEMENT
EVEN
gap 0 · 50% favored
lovedpapii
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Amber III PLACEMENT
ORDER (WIN) Team Δ +27.5
| Role | Player | God | K | D | A | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Weak3n | Merlin | 3 | 4 | 17 | 61 | +4.8 | 66 | 185 |
| ADC NEW | Bubbles | Hou Yi | 12 | 5 | 13 | 0 | +5.1 | 5 | 0 |
| MID NEW | DESTROYINOOBS | Baron Samedi | 11 | 5 | 13 | 0 | +4.9 | 5 | 0 |
| SOLO THIRD | Boolougames | Thor | 9 | 4 | 13 | 89 | +5.9 | 95 | 95 |
| SUPPORT NEW | Porky16 | Sylvanus | 7 | 4 | 16 | 0 | +6.8 | 7 | 0 |
CHAOS (LOSS) Team Δ -23.5
| Role | Player | God | K | D | A | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE NEW | Maesh | Loki | 8 | 7 | 8 | 0 | -3.3 | -3 | 0 |
| ADC NEW | JackD22 | Princess Bari | 3 | 11 | 7 | 0 | -9.0 | -9 | 0 |
| MID NEW | LordSlatysteak TOP DMG | Hecate | 1 | 6 | 16 | -1 | -2.9 | -4 | 2 |
| SOLO NEW | MrUMS | Mordred | 5 | 8 | 3 | 5 | -3.9 | 1 | 1 |
| SUPPORT NEW | lovedpapii | Sobek | 5 | 10 | 10 | 0 | -4.4 | -4 | 0 |
Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers
Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split
ORDER
50% win prob
Δ 2
most balanced split
CHAOS
50% win prob
ORDER · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Bubbles | rookie | |
| ADC | JackD22 | rookie | |
| MID | Porky16 | rookie | |
| SOLO | Weak3n | Gold III | Platinum II PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | MrUMS | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
CHAOS · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Boolougames | Platinum III | Platinum I PLACEMENT |
| ADC | Maesh | rookie | |
| MID | LordSlatysteak | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | DESTROYINOOBS | rookie | |
| SUPPORT | lovedpapii | rookie | |
What changed vs actual draft
- Weak3n: ORDER JUNGLE → ORDER SOLO
- Bubbles: ORDER ADC → ORDER JUNGLE
- Porky16: ORDER SUPPORT → ORDER MID
- MrUMS: CHAOS SOLO → ORDER SUPPORT
- JackD22: CHAOS ADC → ORDER ADC
- Boolougames: ORDER SOLO → CHAOS JUNGLE
- DESTROYINOOBS: ORDER MID → CHAOS SOLO
- Maesh: CHAOS JUNGLE → CHAOS ADC