CHAOS WIN
UPSET
05/31/2026 · Match #1 · Conquest
Confirmed by Edgewing on 6/1/2026, 12:42:40 PM
Kills
20 – 34
MVP · best KDA
Dest 20/3/11
Biggest Elo gain
Dest +11.4
Biggest Elo drop
Boolougames -11.7
Balance Analysis
Based on 181 prior matchesORDER
54% win prob
Δ 28
Lean ORDER
UPSET — underdog won
CHAOS
46% win prob
Order win probChaos win prob
Calibrated model prediction: 0% Order / 100% Chaos — the win-rate model scored on the calibration page (the bar above is the simpler Elo estimate).
Lane Matchups
Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.
JUNGLE
Weak3n
OVR
Silver II
JUNGLE
Poo Poo I
EVEN
gap 3 · 51% favored
Dest
OVR
Bronze III
JUNGLE
Amber III PLACEMENT
ADC
TramboneKing
OVR
Dog Shit I
ADC
Amber III PLACEMENT
SLIGHT EDGE — Chaos
gap 16 · 52% favored
xclipzys
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
ADC
Amber III PLACEMENT
MID
Boolougames
OVR
Platinum I
MID
Platinum I
MISMATCH — Order
gap 105 · 65% favored
SunderMeMore
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
MID
Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO
GetMeOutOfPlat
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO
Amber III PLACEMENT
EVEN
gap 0 · 50% favored
Zikze
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO
Amber III PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Xuffer
OVR
Bronze II PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Bronze II PLACEMENT
SLIGHT EDGE — Order
gap 27 · 54% favored
OpticalElements
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Amber III PLACEMENT
ORDER (LOSS) 20 kills Team Δ -27.2
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Weak3n | 9/6/9 | 3.00 | 48 | ▼ -3.4 | 44 | 181 | |
| ADC OFF-ROLE | TramboneKing | 6/8/6 | 1.50 | -18 | ▼ -3.4 | -21 | 15 | |
| MID | Boolougames | 3/8/4 | 0.88 | 102 | ▼ -11.7 | 90 | 91 | |
| SOLO NEW | GetMeOutOfPlat | 2/6/6 | 1.33 | 0 | ▼ -6.9 | -7 | 0 | |
| SUPPORT | Xuffer | 0/6/12 | 2.00 | 27 | ▼ -1.8 | 25 | 7 |
CHAOS (WIN) 34 kills Team Δ +32.4
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE OFF-ROLE | Dest MVP TOP DMG | 20/3/11 | 10.33 | 21 | ▲ +11.4 | 32 | 12 | |
| ADC NEW | xclipzys | 3/5/11 | 2.80 | 0 | ▲ +2.7 | 3 | 0 | |
| MID NEW | SunderMeMore | 2/4/8 | 2.50 | 0 | ▲ +2.5 | 3 | 0 | |
| SOLO | Zikze | 5/5/16 | 4.20 | 0 | ▲ +5.0 | 5 | 4 | |
| SUPPORT NEW | OpticalElements | 4/3/20 | 8.00 | 0 | ▲ +10.8 | 11 | 0 |
Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers
Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split
ORDER
50% win prob
Δ 3
most balanced split
CHAOS
50% win prob
ORDER · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | GetMeOutOfPlat | rookie | |
| ADC | xclipzys | rookie | |
| MID | Xuffer | Bronze II PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | Weak3n | Silver II | Platinum III PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | Dest | Bronze III | Amber III PLACEMENT |
CHAOS · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Zikze | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | SunderMeMore | rookie | |
| MID | Boolougames | Platinum I | Platinum I |
| SOLO | OpticalElements | rookie | |
| SUPPORT | TramboneKing | Dog Shit I | Amber II PLACEMENT |
What changed vs actual draft
- Xuffer: ORDER SUPPORT → ORDER MID
- Weak3n: ORDER JUNGLE → ORDER SOLO
- GetMeOutOfPlat: ORDER SOLO → ORDER JUNGLE
- Dest: CHAOS JUNGLE → ORDER SUPPORT
- xclipzys: CHAOS ADC → ORDER ADC
- TramboneKing: ORDER ADC → CHAOS SUPPORT
- Boolougames: ORDER MID → CHAOS MID
- Zikze: CHAOS SOLO → CHAOS JUNGLE
- OpticalElements: CHAOS SUPPORT → CHAOS SOLO
- SunderMeMore: CHAOS MID → CHAOS ADC
Notes / Flags
- TramboneKing [shitter]: Can't hit autos to save his life