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CHAOS WIN UPSET

05/06/2026 · Match #6 · Conquest

CONFIRMED Weak3n: WITH ⏱ 28:27 ▶ Watch VOD

Confirmed by Jalopy on 5/7/2026, 1:56:45 PM

Edit
Kills 18 – 31
MVP · best KDA timerrr 3/1/9
Biggest Elo gain timerrr +13.2
Biggest Elo drop JohnRowing -11.5

Balance Analysis

Based on 117 prior matches
ORDER
48
54% win prob
Δ 29
Lean ORDER UPSET — underdog won
CHAOS
19
46% win prob
54%
46%
Order win probChaos win prob

Calibrated model prediction: 0% Order / 100% Chaos — the win-rate model scored on the calibration page (the bar above is the simpler Elo estimate).

Lane Matchups

Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.

JUNGLE
Jonhy0700
OVR Bronze II
JUNGLE Amber III
EVEN gap 3 · 50% favored
Sink
OVR Amber II PLACEMENT
JUNGLE Amber II PLACEMENT
ADC
leoorchild
OVR Amber II PLACEMENT
ADC Amber II PLACEMENT
SLIGHT EDGE — Chaos gap 13 · 52% favored
Kryooo
OVR Gold II
ADC Bronze III
MID
Weak3n
OVR Obsidian III
MID Bronze II
SLIGHT EDGE — Order gap 16 · 52% favored
Suhlayer
OVR Amber II PLACEMENT
MID Amber II PLACEMENT
SOLO
JohnRowing
OVR Amber I
SOLO Amber I
EVEN gap 7 · 51% favored
timerrr
OVR Amber I PLACEMENT
SOLO Amber III PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Draiden
OVR Silver II PLACEMENT
SUPPORT Bronze III PLACEMENT
SLIGHT EDGE — Order gap 21 · 53% favored
SpkNoEvil
OVR Amber III PLACEMENT
SUPPORT Amber III PLACEMENT

ORDER (LOSS) 18 kills Team Δ -30.7

RolePlayerGodK/D/AKDA BeforeΔAfterGP
JUNGLE Jonhy0700 C 2/4/5 1.75 26 ▼ -6.1 20 109
ADC leoorchild 6/5/8 2.80 8 ▼ -1.9 6 5
MID OFF-ROLE Weak3n 5/8/9 1.75 146 ▼ -6.0 140 117
SOLO JohnRowing 4/5/1 1.00 13 ▼ -11.5 1 13
SUPPORT Draiden 1/9/12 1.44 47 ▼ -5.2 42 7

CHAOS (WIN) 31 kills Team Δ +32.5

RolePlayerGodK/D/AKDA BeforeΔAfterGP
JUNGLE Sink C TOP DMG 10/3/12 7.33 8 ▲ +7.3 16 8
ADC Kryooo 7/5/7 2.80 67 ▲ +2.8 70 60
MID Suhlayer 9/3/6 5.00 7 ▲ +5.1 12 3
SOLO timerrr MVP 3/1/9 12.00 10 ▲ +13.2 24 3
SUPPORT NEW SpkNoEvil 2/6/17 3.17 0 ▲ +4.2 4 0

Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers

Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split

ORDER
24
50% win prob
Δ 0
most balanced split
CHAOS
24
50% win prob

ORDER · optimal

RolePlayerOverallIn Role
JUNGLE leoorchild Amber II PLACEMENT Amber III PLACEMENT
ADC Draiden Silver II PLACEMENT Amber III PLACEMENT
MID SpkNoEvil rookie
SOLO Weak3n Obsidian III Platinum II PLACEMENT
SUPPORT Suhlayer Amber II PLACEMENT Amber III PLACEMENT

CHAOS · optimal

RolePlayerOverallIn Role
JUNGLE JohnRowing Amber I Amber III PLACEMENT
ADC Sink Amber II PLACEMENT Amber I PLACEMENT
MID timerrr Amber I PLACEMENT Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO Kryooo Gold II Silver I PLACEMENT
SUPPORT Jonhy0700 Bronze II Amber III PLACEMENT

What changed vs actual draft