CHAOS WIN
05/06/2026 · Match #4 · Conquest
Confirmed by Jalopy on 5/7/2026, 1:37:03 PM
Balance Analysis
Based on 115 prior matchesORDER
47% win prob
Δ 23
Balanced
CHAOS
53% win prob
Order win probChaos win prob
Calibrated model prediction: 0% Order / 100% Chaos — the win-rate model scored on the calibration page (the bar above is the simpler Elo estimate).
Lane Matchups
Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.
JUNGLE
AlphaClaps
OVR
Bronze III
JUNGLE
Amber III PLACEMENT
CLEAR EDGE — Chaos
gap 31 · 54% favored
Kryooo
OVR
Gold II
JUNGLE
Bronze I
ADC
Sink
OVR
Amber I PLACEMENT
ADC
Amber III PLACEMENT
SLIGHT EDGE — Chaos
gap 16 · 52% favored
Weak3n
OVR
Diamond I
ADC
Amber I PLACEMENT
MID
Jonhy0700
OVR
Bronze II
MID
Poo Poo II
SLIGHT EDGE — Order
gap 19 · 53% favored
Edgewing
OVR
Dog Shit I
MID
Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO
Blhyss
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO
Amber II PLACEMENT
SLIGHT EDGE — Order
gap 25 · 54% favored
Bibby
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO
Amber III PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
TenochMedina
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Amber III PLACEMENT
EVEN
gap 0 · 50% favored
timerrr
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Amber III PLACEMENT
ORDER (LOSS) 23 kills Team Δ -17.3
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE SECONDARY | AlphaClaps | 8/7/6 | 2.00 | 21 | ▼ -4.3 | 17 | 34 | |
| ADC OFF-ROLE | Sink | 5/8/5 | 1.25 | 15 | ▼ -3.5 | 11 | 6 | |
| MID THIRD | Jonhy0700 TOP DMG | 6/4/9 | 3.75 | 26 | ▼ -2.4 | 24 | 107 | |
| SOLO | Blhyss C | 1/9/6 | 0.78 | -1 | ▼ -4.9 | -6 | 7 | |
| SUPPORT NEW | TenochMedina | 3/7/8 | 1.57 | -6 | ▼ -2.3 | -9 | 1 |
CHAOS (WIN) 35 kills Team Δ +28.0
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE SECONDARY | Kryooo | 7/4/10 | 4.25 | 67 | ▲ +3.8 | 71 | 58 | |
| ADC OFF-ROLE | Weak3n | 8/8/5 | 1.63 | 138 | ▲ +1.7 | 140 | 115 | |
| MID SECONDARY | Edgewing | 8/7/8 | 2.29 | -16 | ▲ +2.1 | -14 | 22 | |
| SOLO NEW | Bibby MVP C | 7/1/8 | 15.00 | -19 | ▲ +13.9 | -5 | 2 | |
| SUPPORT NEW | timerrr | 5/3/13 | 6.00 | 2 | ▲ +6.5 | 8 | 1 |
Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers
Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split
ORDER
50% win prob
Δ 1
most balanced split
CHAOS
50% win prob
ORDER · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Blhyss | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | Edgewing | Dog Shit I | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| MID | TenochMedina | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | Weak3n | Diamond I | Platinum II PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | timerrr | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
CHAOS · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Bibby | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | Sink | Amber I PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| MID | AlphaClaps | Bronze III | Bronze II PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | Kryooo | Gold II | Silver I PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | Jonhy0700 | Bronze II | Amber III PLACEMENT |
What changed vs actual draft
- Blhyss: ORDER SOLO → ORDER JUNGLE
- TenochMedina: ORDER SUPPORT → ORDER MID
- Edgewing: CHAOS MID → ORDER ADC
- Weak3n: CHAOS ADC → ORDER SOLO
- timerrr: CHAOS SUPPORT → ORDER SUPPORT
- Jonhy0700: ORDER MID → CHAOS SUPPORT
- AlphaClaps: ORDER JUNGLE → CHAOS MID
- Sink: ORDER ADC → CHAOS ADC
- Bibby: CHAOS SOLO → CHAOS JUNGLE
- Kryooo: CHAOS JUNGLE → CHAOS SOLO
Notes / Flags
- Blhyss [shitter]: didnt compete