ORDER WIN
F6 by CHAOS
UPSET
05/04/2026 · Match #1 · Conquest
Confirmed by Jalopy on 5/5/2026, 12:53:08 PM
Kills
15 – 7
MVP · best KDA
Jonhy0700 5/1/5
Biggest Elo gain
Jonhy0700 +12.1
Biggest Elo drop
Riptzer -7.8
Balance Analysis
Based on 100 prior matchesORDER
45% win prob
Δ 35
Lean CHAOS
UPSET — underdog won
CHAOS
55% win prob
Order win probChaos win prob
Calibrated model prediction: 0% Order / 100% Chaos — the win-rate model scored on the calibration page (the bar above is the simpler Elo estimate).
Lane Matchups
Pre-match per-role rank vs rank. The winning side label means the predicted-favored lane, not who actually won the game.
JUNGLE
Jonhy0700
OVR
Amber I
JUNGLE
Poo Poo III
MISMATCH — Chaos
gap 85 · 62% favored
Weak3n
OVR
Diamond I
JUNGLE
Gold I
ADC
Jalopy
OVR
Silver I
ADC
Bronze II PLACEMENT
SLIGHT EDGE — Order
gap 23 · 53% favored
Room40
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
ADC
Amber III PLACEMENT
MID
DeltaJulz613
OVR
Silver III
MID
Bronze III
SLIGHT EDGE — Order
gap 17 · 52% favored
Theoneisbacka
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
MID
Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO
TramboneKing
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
SOLO
Amber III PLACEMENT
EVEN
gap 7 · 51% favored
Blhyss
OVR
Amber II PLACEMENT
SOLO
Amber II PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Xuffer
OVR
Amber III PLACEMENT
SUPPORT
Amber III PLACEMENT
MISMATCH — Chaos
gap 136 · 69% favored
Riptzer
OVR
Diamond I
SUPPORT
Diamond II
ORDER (WIN) 15 kills Team Δ +33.0
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Jonhy0700 MVP C STOMPER | 5/1/5 | 10.00 | 15 | ▲ +12.1 | 27 | 92 | |
| ADC THIRD | Jalopy TOP DMG STOMPER | 5/2/7 | 6.00 | 51 | ▲ +7.0 | 58 | 15 | |
| MID | DeltaJulz613 STOMPER | 1/1/3 | 4.00 | 39 | ▲ +4.6 | 44 | 28 | |
| SOLO NEW | TramboneKing STOMPER | 0/1/2 | 2.00 | 4 | ▲ +2.9 | 7 | 1 | |
| SUPPORT NEW | Xuffer STOMPER | 4/2/6 | 5.00 | -8 | ▲ +6.5 | -2 | 2 |
CHAOS (LOSS) 7 kills Team Δ -23.9
| Role | Player | God | K/D/A | KDA | Before | Δ | After | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Weak3n F6er | 3/2/2 | 2.50 | 136 | ▼ -4.6 | 132 | 100 | |
| ADC NEW | Room40 F6er | 1/7/4 | 0.71 | 1 | ▼ -7.5 | -7 | 2 | |
| MID NEW | Theoneisbacka F6er | 2/1/3 | 5.00 | 0 | ▼ -2.4 | -2 | 0 | |
| SOLO | Blhyss F6er | 0/0/3 | 3.00 | 7 | ▼ -1.6 | 6 | 5 | |
| SUPPORT | Riptzer C F6er | 1/5/5 | 1.20 | 132 | ▼ -7.8 | 124 | 66 |
Elo: per-match pool split by team-relative KDA · off-role losses softened (primary/secondary check) · placement floors shitter tiers
Optimal draft — same 10 players, balanced split
ORDER
50% win prob
Δ 1
most balanced split
CHAOS
50% win prob
ORDER · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Xuffer | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | Room40 | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| MID | Blhyss | Amber II PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | Weak3n | Diamond I | Platinum II PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | Jonhy0700 | Amber I | Amber III PLACEMENT |
CHAOS · optimal
| Role | Player | Overall | In Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| JUNGLE | Jalopy | Silver I | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| ADC | DeltaJulz613 | Silver III | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| MID | Riptzer | Diamond I | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SOLO | TramboneKing | Amber III PLACEMENT | Amber III PLACEMENT |
| SUPPORT | Theoneisbacka | rookie | |
What changed vs actual draft
- Xuffer: ORDER SUPPORT → ORDER JUNGLE
- Jonhy0700: ORDER JUNGLE → ORDER SUPPORT
- Blhyss: CHAOS SOLO → ORDER MID
- Room40: CHAOS ADC → ORDER ADC
- Weak3n: CHAOS JUNGLE → ORDER SOLO
- TramboneKing: ORDER SOLO → CHAOS SOLO
- Jalopy: ORDER ADC → CHAOS JUNGLE
- DeltaJulz613: ORDER MID → CHAOS ADC
- Riptzer: CHAOS SUPPORT → CHAOS MID
- Theoneisbacka: CHAOS MID → CHAOS SUPPORT
Notes / Flags
- Room40 [shitter]: feeding
- Theoneisbacka [weak3n_said]: WHY NOT GO IN WHEN THEY JUMPED ON ME??
- Theoneisbacka [shitter]: no coms